USD/JPY: The Yen should turn once again – Westpac

The Japanese currency has not shown off its safe-haven status this time probably due to the proximity of the coronavirus to Japan. Analysts at Westpac Institutional Bank predict the Yen will recover its ground in the next weeks.

Key quotes

“We believe uncertainty will persist, supporting the US dollar. However, there is likely to be an offsetting shift in relative growth dynamics and a consequent turn in US monetary policy. This will leave the US dollar lower at the end of the year than its starting level.”

“The Yen typically sees a strong safe-haven bid during global risk episodes; but in this instance, the currency has lost ground against the US dollar – USD/JPY up 1.0% since December to 109.83. Ahead, Japan's strong health system and already-announced fiscal stimulus should limit the negative shock that their economy will experience. As this becomes apparent in the data in coming months, sentiment surrounding the Yen should turn once again..”

“The Yen will reverse its move since December (to around JPY109, or a little below), but the factor that will then extend this move down to the JPY105 level we expect in the second half of 2020 is a shift in the US/Japan monetary policy differential.”