US: Inflation to disturb the Fed – ANZ

The United States will release inflation data on 13 Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Economists at ANZ share the forecast of the oceanic bank as the US dollar is showing strength since weeks ago. 

Key quotes

“We expect core CPI to increase by 0.2% m/m (or 2.4% y/y) in January (market: 0.2%, 2.4%) and to increase around trend of 0.2% m/m in the next few months.”

“We also expect headline CPI to rise by 0.1% m/m (market 0.2%, 2.4%). The risk is to the downside, given a recent drop in energy prices, therefore, headline inflation is likely to fall in the near term.”

“We see little prospect of a rate hike for some time. We believe the Fed will welcome inflation rising above target for a reasonable period, and that it would likely require a lengthy and decent overshoot of the 2% inflation target before contemplating a hike.”