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RBNZ overview
The RBNZ decision will come out at 5 PM ET today just after US traders head out of the door. However, there are no surprises expected. The RBNZ is expected to remain on hold at 1.75% and to reinforce the ultra-neutral stance given the continued dovish rhetoric of late, election coalition developments and RBNZ leadership changes that all mean this decision should be somewhat of a ‘non-event'.
“Our bias is still that the OCR will be lifted late next year. Potential shifts in fiscal policy and a lower NZD (when the liquidity cycle turns) are major factors nudging us towards the OCR moving up. However, it is hardly a strongly held view, with the risks skewed towards an even longer policy siesta. There is simply not sufficient excess demand to drive inflation up,” argued analysts at ANZ.
However, as analysts at Westpac explained, there’s a small risk of a dovish outcome. "Developments since the August MPS have been slightly net negative relative to the RBNZ’s forecasts: lower house prices, and slightly lower GDP growth, mostly offset by a lower exchange rate and higher near-term inflation. We expect that the final paragraph of the one-page press release will be a repeat of the phrases that have been used more-or-less unchanged for the past five missives: “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.” There should be little market reaction to this."
How could the RBNZ affect NZD/USD?
More from Westpac:
"Our dovish scenario (15% chance) would see the policy guidance paragraph changed to reflect the possibility the next change in the OCR could be either a cut or a hike. Concern would be expressed about cooler housing and stalled construction activity. In response, NZD/USD could fall by 1c and 2yr swap by 10bp. A hawkish scenario (10% chance) is more difficult to construct but would emphasise improving global economic conditions and rising confidence among major central banks."
Key notes:
About the RBNZ interest decision and statement
The RBNZ interest rate decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD. The RBNZ rate statement contains the explanations of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.
