CAD: Employment and trade data in focus today – RBC CM

Economists at RBC Capital Markets, are close to consensus in projecting a 10K decline in Canada’s employment in October following a 67K gain in September.

Key Quotes

“Details were soft within the September data, with part-time employment (44K) and self-employment (+50K) accounting for a majority of the gains. Moreover, the 55-and-over age group has accounted all of the ~106K in employment gains in 2016-to-date.

September trade data are also due, with consensus being for a slight narrowing of the deficit to CAD1.7bn from CAD1.9bn previously. Beyond the headline deficit, the key figure to watch is the growth of non-oil export volumes. Volumes were flat y/y on this basis in August and the big picture is that the rebalancing of the economy that the BoC still hopes these data will show is so far proving illusive.

Resistance at 1.3446 remains in place as a hurdle for further gains in USD/CAD, with 1.3313 serving a support through the data.”