US: All eyes on CPI ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes release – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that the US headline CPI should post its first sequential decline since February on the back of a decline in gasoline prices today.

Key Quotes

“This will take the year-on-year rate down to 0.9% from 1.0%. Core prices, on the other hand, are expected to rise 0.2%, enough to keep the y/y pace right at the cycle high of 2.3%.

FOMC Minutes (Wed): On the back of an FOMC statement that was generally perceived as hawkish, the Minutes will be scrutinized to understand their rationale in that regard. What we know is that the Fed statement said “near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished” and there was a clear marking up of their current economic assessment, notably on the labor backdrop. This begs the question: Is it enough to justify—in their view—a rise in the funds rate sooner rather than later? On that score, the market will want to know if “some” or “many” or “a few” officials think a hike is on the horizon—classic descriptors used by the Fed. Our hunch is that a better event for gleaning their thinking will be Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech later in the month.”