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27 Apr 2015
USD/JPY: Bears are in charge headed in to April closing
FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is currently trading at 118.79 with a high of 118.96 and a low of 118.76.
USD/JPY left last week shamefully through the closing doors last week and today, there is very little to be bullish about either as we enter the closing week for April's business. There is yet further supply in Tokyo today while there is nothing on the calendar ahead of the Dallas Fed, where the impact of oil prices are likely to be of theme. Later in the week we get the US Q1 GDP and the FOMC statement as well as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) who will release their semi-annual Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices.
We might expect some further easing from the BoJ at some point later this year, but it might be too soon to expect any kind of extensions at this juncture until we see a deterioration of GDP or indeed until inflation is downgraded significantly. All in all, we are in a sellers market as investors postpone the idea of a Fed hike as soon as June and there are likely to be nerves around US GDP tomorrow.
BoJ preview, likely to remain on hold:
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explained that BoJ is likely to remain on-hold judging from its communication and economic fundamentals but lower FY15 inflation outlook...
"Since the BoJ is widely expected to lower its forecast inflation rate for FY3/16 from the 1% forecast in January due to the decline in oil prices, some market participants, albeit a minority, expect the BoJ to announce additional easing.
"However, we believe it will remain on hold with its current monetary easing framework at the upcoming meeting."
"On-hold would cause knee-jerk yen strength while another surprise will weaken yen but deepen future communication challenge."
"Monetary policy will remain "data dependent," for the time being, but JGB yields are likely to grind lower for 2015."
Technically, a fade on any rallies has been the theme of late and the range between 118.50 and 120.85 is under threat to the downside at the start of this week. S2 stands 118.16 although RSI (14) on the hourly stick is headed for oversold conditions at 30.
USD/JPY left last week shamefully through the closing doors last week and today, there is very little to be bullish about either as we enter the closing week for April's business. There is yet further supply in Tokyo today while there is nothing on the calendar ahead of the Dallas Fed, where the impact of oil prices are likely to be of theme. Later in the week we get the US Q1 GDP and the FOMC statement as well as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) who will release their semi-annual Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices.
We might expect some further easing from the BoJ at some point later this year, but it might be too soon to expect any kind of extensions at this juncture until we see a deterioration of GDP or indeed until inflation is downgraded significantly. All in all, we are in a sellers market as investors postpone the idea of a Fed hike as soon as June and there are likely to be nerves around US GDP tomorrow.
BoJ preview, likely to remain on hold:
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explained that BoJ is likely to remain on-hold judging from its communication and economic fundamentals but lower FY15 inflation outlook...
"Since the BoJ is widely expected to lower its forecast inflation rate for FY3/16 from the 1% forecast in January due to the decline in oil prices, some market participants, albeit a minority, expect the BoJ to announce additional easing.
"However, we believe it will remain on hold with its current monetary easing framework at the upcoming meeting."
"On-hold would cause knee-jerk yen strength while another surprise will weaken yen but deepen future communication challenge."
"Monetary policy will remain "data dependent," for the time being, but JGB yields are likely to grind lower for 2015."
Technically, a fade on any rallies has been the theme of late and the range between 118.50 and 120.85 is under threat to the downside at the start of this week. S2 stands 118.16 although RSI (14) on the hourly stick is headed for oversold conditions at 30.