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Notícias de trading
23 Apr 2015
Weak UK retail sales support the case for a weaker GBP – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analyst at Danske Bank, Mikael Olai Milhøj, reviews the UK retail sales data release, and sees the weaker numbers supporting Danske’s case for a weaker GBP ahead of the UK elections.
Key Quotes
“The release of retail sales in March was the last important set of data ahead of the first estimate for GDP growth in Q1 due out next week.”
“Retail sales declined by 0.5% m/m in March. Excluding auto fuel, they rose by 0.2% m/m. This was below what analysts had expected (Reuters survey). We had anticipated a large increase in retail sales in March as they were weak in both January and February. Total retail sales grew 0.9% q/q in Q1 while excluding auto fuel they increased by 0.5% q/q.”
“Overall, retail sales disappointed despite high consumer confidence, increasing employment and positive real wage growth for the first time since 2009.”
“Despite the slowdown in growth in Q1, we expect it to rebound in the coming quarters. Higher employment and positive real wage growth should support private consumption. The economic recovery in the rest of Europe is good news for UK exports as increasing growth in UK export markets more than offsets the negative impact on exports from the stronger GBP against the EUR.”
“The GBP depreciated against both the EUR and USD following the release. The weak figures support our view that the GBP will weaken against the USD ahead of the election on 7 May.”
Key Quotes
“The release of retail sales in March was the last important set of data ahead of the first estimate for GDP growth in Q1 due out next week.”
“Retail sales declined by 0.5% m/m in March. Excluding auto fuel, they rose by 0.2% m/m. This was below what analysts had expected (Reuters survey). We had anticipated a large increase in retail sales in March as they were weak in both January and February. Total retail sales grew 0.9% q/q in Q1 while excluding auto fuel they increased by 0.5% q/q.”
“Overall, retail sales disappointed despite high consumer confidence, increasing employment and positive real wage growth for the first time since 2009.”
“Despite the slowdown in growth in Q1, we expect it to rebound in the coming quarters. Higher employment and positive real wage growth should support private consumption. The economic recovery in the rest of Europe is good news for UK exports as increasing growth in UK export markets more than offsets the negative impact on exports from the stronger GBP against the EUR.”
“The GBP depreciated against both the EUR and USD following the release. The weak figures support our view that the GBP will weaken against the USD ahead of the election on 7 May.”