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20 Apr 2015
GBP yield curve expected to flatten – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to analysts at Danske Bank, rates could rise in the short end of the curve while they could remain capped in the longer end.
Key Quotes
“We have revised down our yield forecast some 10-20bp across the GBP curve, as we now expect the first rate hike to arrive three months later”.
“The upcoming general election in the UK on 7 May is a downside risk factor for UK interest rates in the short term”.
“Polls have been relatively stable, suggesting that the election is unusually open and there is a very high risk of a hung parliament, which could weigh on interest rates and keep volatility high on GBP markets – even after the election”.
“However, we still project a significant rise in UK interest rates on a medium-term horizon and our three-, six- and 12-month forecasts are above forwards across the curve”.
“We expect the GBP yield curve to flatten, with rates rising most in the 0-5Y segments, while we expect the long end of the GBP curve to be more capped in line with our view on the long end of the US curve due to aggressive monetary easing in Europe and Japan”.
Key Quotes
“We have revised down our yield forecast some 10-20bp across the GBP curve, as we now expect the first rate hike to arrive three months later”.
“The upcoming general election in the UK on 7 May is a downside risk factor for UK interest rates in the short term”.
“Polls have been relatively stable, suggesting that the election is unusually open and there is a very high risk of a hung parliament, which could weigh on interest rates and keep volatility high on GBP markets – even after the election”.
“However, we still project a significant rise in UK interest rates on a medium-term horizon and our three-, six- and 12-month forecasts are above forwards across the curve”.
“We expect the GBP yield curve to flatten, with rates rising most in the 0-5Y segments, while we expect the long end of the GBP curve to be more capped in line with our view on the long end of the US curve due to aggressive monetary easing in Europe and Japan”.