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USD/JPY: A narrower range of 146.20/148.50 may be enough to contain the price – UOB Group

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 146.75/147.65. In the longer run, a narrower range of 146.20/148.50 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD/JPY is likely to continue range-trading

24-HOUR VIEW: "USD traded in a relatively quiet manner two days ago. Yesterday, we indicated that 'the price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect range-trading, likely between 146.95 and 147.85.' USD subsequently rose to 147.99 and then dropped back down to a low of 146.97 before closing at 147.20 (-0.18%). While there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, this is likely to lead to a lower range of 146.75/147.65 rather than a sustained decline."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our latest narrative from Wednesday (10 Sep, spot at 147.40), we highlighted that 'the outlook remains mixed.' We also highlighted that USD 'is now expected to trade in a range of 146.00/149.00.' We continue to expect range-trading, but a narrower range of 146.20/148.50 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now."

Underlying assumptions regarding supply are too optimistic – Commerzbank

Such a significant oversupply as anticipated by the IEA would exert considerable pressure on oil prices, like in 2020, which would have a negative impact on oil production, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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OPEC, by contrast, forecasts a supply deficit – Commerzbank

OPEC did not make any changes to its forecasts in its monthly report, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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