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14 Aug 2025
USD/JPY: Bearish flag playing out – OCBC
USD/JPY fell on comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Fed and BoJ. Pair was last at 146.55, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Risks skewed to the downside
"He told Bloomberg TV his opinion that BoJ is behind the curve in addressing inflation and that he had discussed inflation in Japan with BoJ Governor Ueda. He added that 'So they’re going to be hiking and they need to get their inflation problem under control'. On Fed, he suggested a 50bp cut in September."
"We have long argued that a resumption of Fed-BoJ policy divergence should underpin the direction of travel for USD/JPY to the downside. Wage growth, broadening services inflation and upbeat economic activities in Japan should continue to support BoJ policy normalisation."
"Daily momentum turned mild bearish while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside. Immediate support at 146.40 (50 DMA), 145.50 (100 DMA) and 144.10 (61.8% fibo retracement of Apr low to Aug high). Resistance at 147.80 (21 DMA), 148.32 (23.6% fibo)."