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1 Apr 2025
EUR slightly softer but maintains range near 1.08 – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is underperforming with a modest 0.2% decline vs. the US Dollar (USD), while still trading within a relatively tight range around 1.08, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Near-term price action remains centered around 1.08
"Data releases have offered few surprises with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI coming in at 48.6 (vs. 48.7 exp.) and headline CPI printing 2.2% y/y as expected. Messaging out of the ECB continues to shift toward a pause at the April 17 meeting, which should offer support to the EUR via spreads given that markets are still pricing about 20bps of easing."
"Near-term risk will remain centered on trade however, as markets maintain their focus on Wednesdays’ US trade announcement."
"Near-term price action remains centered around 1.08 with support in the mid-1.07s and resistance around 1.0850. The moderation in momentum reflects the broader, month-long consolidation bound between the low 1.07 area and the mid-1.09s."